CIMC Group Corporation (000039): CIMC Vehicles Expanded, Global Expansion Speeded Up
Investment Highlights The expansion of the listing of CIMC Vehicles on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will become the fourth listing platform of CIMC Group: CIMC Vehicles, a subsidiary of CIMC Group, is expected to be officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 11, with a sale price of 6.
Constructed in 08, to be sold worldwide 2.
6.5 billion shares, of which the Hong Kong offering accounted for 10%, the international placement accounted for 90%, and the other not more than 15% of over-allotment rights, the highest raised funds will be replaced by more than 2 billion.
After the listing of CIMC Vehicles, the market value is expected to be 11.31 billion to 14.3 billion, which corresponds to a net profit of 12 in 2018.
3 billion yuan, the static market surplus error is 8-10 times.
Without considering over-allocation rights, CIMC Group will directly and indirectly control CIMC Vehicles53 through CIMC Hong Kong after listing.
The 8% equity will become the fourth independent listing platform of CIMC, following CIMC Group, CIMC Enric and CIMC Tianda.
CIMC Vehicles is the world’s largest semi-trailer manufacturer: CIMC Group’s semi-trailer and special vehicle bodybuilding manufacturing business started in 2002 and changed to CIMC Vehicles Co., Ltd. in 2005. The “Lighthouse” factory was established in 2014 and 2015Merged Vanguard in the United States and LAG in Belgium successively. In 2016, it acquired British SDC.
CIMC Vehicle’s revenue in 2016-2018 was 146/194/242 million, with a compound annual growth rate of 28.
9%; realized net profit of 7 respectively.
30,000 yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 27.
9%, maintaining a relatively rapid growth, is the company’s stable second largest business.
According to Frost & Sullivan, global semi-trailer sales were up from 90 in 2013.
20,000 vehicles increased to 118 in 2017.
0 million vehicles, with a compound annual growth rate of 7%.
Among them, the sales volume of CIMC vehicles in 2017 was 12.
20,000 vehicles, with a global market share of 10.
3%, the world’s leading semi-trailer, significantly higher than the second German Schmidz 5
2% market share.
Benefiting from the upgrade of safety technology standards and the increase in treatment over-strength, the demand for semi-trailers will remain stable: the safety technology standards for semi-trailers are being continuously improved internally, and new national standards will be implemented in 2016 to phase out dimensions, axle loads and technical requirementsUnqualified semi-trailer; every September 2017, a new national standard “Reset Technical Conditions for Safe Operation” is announced, in which the new semi-trailer is equipped with new technical regulations for disc brake discs and air suspension systems, and its advantages will be January 2020.
The implementation of new technical standards will accelerate the elimination of unqualified semi-trailers and increase the demand brought by vehicle renewal.
At the same 武汉夜生活网 time, since 2019, the speed of local governance has been increasing, and the Ministry of Communications has notified that the national overload overload identification standards must be strictly implemented, the replacement emission standards improved, and infrastructure investment increased. It is expected that the semi-trailer market will gradually maintain a steady growth trend.
Accelerating global expansion, the vehicle business has a great potential to increase its share in European cities: according to 2017 semi-trailer sales data, the company ranks first in the country (15.
7%), North America ranked third (11.
4%), the European market ranked fifth (3.
There is room for improvement in the market share of overseas markets, especially in Europe and emerging markets.
CIMC Vehicles will accelerate the pace of global expansion after listing. The company plans to use 70% of the funds raised to open new production lines and assembly plants in the United States and Europe, 10% of funds for new product development, and 20% of funds for repayment.Also repay bank loans and increase operating funds.
The company gradually improved the listing opportunity, further enhanced the digitization of production processes, increased the development of new products, and increased its market share in the European and American segments.
Container demand has fallen at a high level, and gross margin is expected to be stable: After rapid growth in 2017-2018, global container demand has shown signs of fatigue since 2019, especially in the second quarter of the Sino-U.S. Trade dispute, which has escalated and accelerated port container exports.Free radicals.
According to the General Administration of Customs data, the volume and total amount of container exports in the previous five months have fallen back to the same period in 2017, and the number of exports in the first five months of this year has alternately increased to -18.
3%, the export value increased by -28 in ten years.
Considering that the price of steel has risen to an average of 5% in 2018 this year, it is expected that the company’s container revenue will improve this year, and the gross profit margin will remain at the level of last year.
Investment proposal: Independent listing of the vehicle business will improve the management and operation efficiency of the group, improve financing capabilities and convenience of capital operations, and at the same time expand production capacity and technology upgrades in Europe and the United States.Taking into account the fatigue of the global container market since this year, we have lowered the company’s revenue forecast for the next three years by a reduction of 6 respectively.
8% / 3.
9% / 2.
7%, it is expected that the company’s operating income for 2019-2021 will be 1002 trillion, 1182 trillion, 1350 trillion; net profit attributable to mothers will be reduced by 4.
3% / 3.
8% / 3.
7%, expected to be 34.
8.2 billion, 41.
3.6 billion, 48.
06 ppm; According to the current sustainable and profit forecast, the PE in 2019 is 11 times, which is still at a historical height, maintaining the “Buy-A” rating.
Risk Warning: Continuously promoting “transit to iron” will affect market demand for road transport vehicles; intensified trade friction between China and the United States will affect global trade activities and reduce container demand; rising raw material prices will weaken the company’s profitability; land preparation and offshore engineering progressNot as expected.