Sinopharm (600511): 1 quarterly report meets expectations Expansion of device business continues

Sinopharm (600511): 1 quarterly report meets expectations Expansion of device business continues

Event: The company released the quarterly report for 2019, reporting that the 武汉夜生活网 combined company achieved operating income of 100.

500 million, an increase of 10 in ten years.

1%, realizing net profit attributable to mother 2.

86 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.

4%; non-net profit attributable to mother 2.

85 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.

5%; announced that the company’s holding subsidiary Tianxing Puxin intends to acquire 70% of Sinopharm Huixin Qingyuan (Beijing) Technology Development Co., Ltd. with its own funds of 79.1 million yuan.

Opinion: The company’s first quarter results are in line with expectations.

Among them, the company’s revenue growth rate exceeded our expectations, indicating that the business performance of the Beijing area is performing well.

Company operating cash flow-8.

5 trillion, poor performance, refer to the cash flow statement, in which the purchase of goods, services received 110 cash.

8 ‰, an increase of 9 in ten years.

1%, and cash paid for purchasing goods and services received US $ 11.3 billion, an increase of 20%. The increase in upstream payment efforts is leading. We expect this to be related to the company’s market strategy of targeting large customers in advance.

In terms of financial data: gross profit margin and selling expense ratio are 7 respectively.

72% and 2.

46%, a year-on-year decrease of 73bp and 56bp, respectively. We believe that this is related to the larger scale of upstream repatriation profits in the same period last year and the higher market service expenditure in the transition period of the two-vote system; the financial expense ratio was 0.

32%, a previous decline of 24bp; this benefited from the improvement of the social debt financing environment at the end of last year and the decline in the level of financing interest rates.

The company’s holding subsidiary Tianxing Puxin intends to acquire 70% of Sinopharm Huixin Qingyuan (Beijing) Technology Development Co., Ltd. for 79.1 million yuan.

Sinopharm Huixin Qingyuan is mainly a device sales company. Its products include organ preservation solution UW solution, artificial bone, and Braun hemodialysis products.

The product Organ Preservation Solution (UW solution) is an exclusive product, the global standard for organ preservation solutions, and has a good market competitiveness.

The target company’s total profit commitment for the next 36 months based on the acquisition date is 59.69 million yuan, and after the balance sheet is expected, it will bring more than 10 million profit contributions to the company in 2019.

The acquisition can expand the sales of medical equipment of Guokong Tianxing in the field of organ transplantation, enrich the company’s product line, seek new profit growth points, and meet the strategic deployment of the company’s equipment as an important new business.

Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect the company’s revenue to be 415 in 2019-2021.

8 ppm, 453.

4 ppm and 497.

300 million, an increase of 7 each year.

34%, 9.

04% and 9.

68%; net profit attributable to the parent company is 14 respectively.

470,000 yuan, 16.

2.5 billion and 18.

00 ppm, an increase of 3 each year.

10%, 12.

23% and 10.

74%; corresponding EPS is 1.

89 yuan, 2.

13 yuan and 2.

35 yuan, we give the company 16-18 times PE in 2019, corresponding to a price range of 30.2-34.

0 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning events: the risk that the reorganized company cannot fulfill its profit commitment; the expansion of the anesthetic field is less than expected; the risk of intensified competition in the Beijing pharmaceutical market

Yonghui Supermarket (601933): Super-expected Supermarket Leader Speeds Up

Yonghui Supermarket (601933): Super-expected Supermarket Leader Speeds Up

The company announced its 2018 annual report and 2019 first quarter report, and the performance exceeded market expectations: (1) 2018 achieved revenue of 705.

1.7 billion, an increase of 20 in ten years.

35%, net profit attributable to mother 14.

8 billion, a decrease of 18 previously.


We calculate that, excluding fair incentive fees and Yunchuang’s impact, Yunchao’s net profit growth rate was 21.

14%; (2) Revenue of 222 in Q1 2019.

36 billion, an annual increase of 18.


Net profit attributable to mother 11.

2.4 billion, an increase of 50 in ten years.


We calculated that after excluding fair incentive fees, Yunchuang ‘s breakthrough and the impact of fresh food sales, Yunchao ‘s net profit increased by 18%.

74%; (3) 2018Q4 achieved revenue of 178.

24 ppm, an increase of 16 in ten years.


Net profit attributable to mother 4.

63 ppm, a 10-year increase of 8.


The increase in fees caused the net interest margin in 2018, and the profitability of 2019Q1 rebounded.

(1) Gross profit margin in 2018 22.

15%, increase by 1 year.

31 points.

Net interest rate 1.

41%, down by 1 every year.

47 points.

The increase in gross profit margin was mainly due to the expansion of business scale and stronger upstream bargaining power; (2) 2018 expense ratio20.

86%, an increase of 3 per year.

54 points.

Selling expense ratio 16.

39%, an increase of 1 per year.

97 points.

Management expense ratio 4.

26%, an increase of 1 per year.

22 points.

(3) Gross profit margin in 2019Q1 22.

71%, an increase of 0 from 2018.

56 points.Net interest rate 5.

07%, increase by 1 every year.

59pct, an increase of 0 from 2018.

18 points.

Expense rate is 16.

62%, down by 1 every year.

67 cases, down 4 from 2018.


Focus on the cloud super business, strengthen the store-to-store business, and consolidate the advantages of national channels.

(1) By the end of 2018, there were a total of 708 stores, covering 24 provinces and municipalities across the country, and achieving full coverage of first to sixth-tier cities.

During the year, 135 new stores were opened, covering an area of 96.

250,000 square meters, 240 stores have been opened, and the reserve area is 188.

480,000 square meters; (2) The rapid development of online business, the home business covers 490 stores in 88 cities in 20 provinces and cities, with 3 million members, set to 16.

800 million, an annual increase of 3.

2 times, business accounted for 2.

4%, increase by 1 every year.

5 points.

330 stores received home, adding another 95; (3) 21/93 new supermarket / mini stores opened in 19Q1, 27 green label stores signed, and 146 mini stores signed.

Build a food supply chain platform enterprise and promote the implementation of digital transformation strategy. 2018: (1) Supply chain segment: Private label and quality customized sales of USD 1.6 billion.

The logistics center covers 17 provinces and cities across the country with a total area of 450,000 square meters and a distribution operation volume of 40.9 billion.

Caishixian has set up fresh central plants in 6 provinces and cities, covering 405 supermarket stores, and achieved revenues of 2.4 billion; (2) the big science and technology sector: building cloud platform, upgrading store management tools, starting the Phaeton project strong foundation projectEstablish a consumer supply chain system platform. The first phase of the system has been implemented, and the second phase will be gradually implemented.

Slightly raised earnings forecast and upgraded to “Buy” rating.

The company has recently adjusted its strategy, focused on the Yunchao segment, strengthened its presence in the store, explored new business formats, and continued to promote national expansion.

Taking into account the performance growth brought by the mini store and the company’s operating efficiency improved after the merger of the first and second mergers, the operating management costs decreased.

Based on optimistic expectations of the company’s future, we slightly raised our profit forecast and changed the company’s focus on the development of its main business 深圳丝袜会所 to give a 45-fold increase in value, corresponding to 11.

25 yuan. There was 25% room for sustainability earlier. The rating was upgraded from “overweight” to “buy”. It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-2021 will be 24.

39 (original value of 23.

65) / 32.

92 (original value 32.

49) / 42.

76 (new) billion, corresponding to 0 EPS.



45 yuan, corresponding to the current total PE is 36/26/20 times.

Risk warning: terminal demand declines, industry competition intensifies, business expansion is less than expected, and costs increase too quickly.

Haige Communication (002465): Chip + Scenario Double Fist Attacks Optimistic about the Growth Prospect of Beidou Leaders

Haige Communication (002465): “Chip + Scenario” Double Fist Attacks Optimistic about the Growth Prospect of Beidou Leaders

Company status On May 22, Hager Telecom participated in the 10th China Satellite Navigation Academic Conference and released a number of new Beidou III chip products, as well as multiple Beidou high-precision solutions such as precision services and intelligent space-time.

The newly released “Dolphin One” is the first 100Hz class high-precision baseband chip in China.

“Dolphin No. 1” HP2018 is the first batch of full-system full-frequency satellite navigation military-civilian dual-use advanced baseband chips in China, capable of handling anti-narrowband interference and anti-deception interference capabilities in complex environments.

The chip has a self-developed high-performance hardware accelerator, and it is the first high-precision positioning and navigation baseband chip in the country to support 100Hz-level data update rates (10?
20Hz level), which can provide continuous accurate positioning and timing in a highly dynamic and complex environment to meet the needs of autonomous driving and more artificial intelligence applications.

The newly released RX3701 Beidou III RF chip ranked first in physical comparison.

The RX3701 quad-receive and one-transmit multi-mode multi-frequency RF chip designed and developed by Guangzhou Runxin supports all navigation frequency points, L-band star-based enhanced signal reception, global short message signal transmission and reception, including 3 independent GNSS down-conversion channels and RDSS transmission and reception.aisle.

The chip has excellent performance and ranks first in physical comparison, giving Haige Communication a leading edge in the field of Beidou III equipment.

“Core Device + Application Scenario” 四川耍耍网 double fist attack, optimistic about the growth prospects of Beidou navigation leader.

Haige Communications is a Beidou navigation equipment development expert with an entire industry chain layout, and its market share is in an internal leading position.

In terms of Beidou III core devices, military RF chips are ranked first in the bidding process. Military baseband chips passed the first round of comparison and were successfully selected. Military anti-interference modules are planned to be completed in the second half of 19 years, and civilian chips are planned to be mass-produced in the second half of 20 years.
In terms of application scenarios, the company mainly promotes three major directions: location services, smart cities, and intelligent transportation: Beidou’s advanced service platform construction is rapidly advancing, and the precise positioning network is planned to complete national networking in 2019; it is being built in cooperation with the government in Nansha New District, Huangpu District, GuangzhouDemonstration projects, we judge that it is expected to form a replicable model and promote it to the whole country in the future.

The Beidou III era is coming. We are optimistic that Beidou military products will open a new round of rapid growth for the company, and optimistic that Beidou civilian products will open up long-term growth space for the company.

It is estimated to be maintained at 5.

7.4 billion / 8.

00 ppm19 / 20 year net profit forecast unchanged.

Currently corresponds to 38 previously.

2x / 27.

4x 19 / 20e P / E, located in the bottom area of the company’s historical height and below the comparable company’s forecast hub, is absolutely absolute and relatively attractive.

Maintain target price of 12 yuan, corresponding to 35x20e P / E (SOTP estimate), potential growth potential is 26%, and re-recommend.

Risks The progress of military order delivery and the development of new markets for civilian products are uncertain.

Huatai Securities (601688) 2019 Interim Report Comment: Big self-employment is optimistic about the future investment bank’s development prospects

Huatai Securities (601688) 2019 Interim Report Comment: Big self-employment is optimistic about the future investment bank’s development prospects

In the first half of the year, the company achieved operating income of 111.

07 million yuan, an increase of 35 in ten years.

18%, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company is 40.

570,000 yuan, an increase of 28 in ten years.

43%, net profit after deduction is 40.

4.4 billion, the previous growth rate was 32.

68%; of which, the second quarter of 2019 realized operating income of 10,000 yuan, an increase of 23.

73%, down 22 from the previous month.

23%; net profit attributable to mothers reached 100 million yuan in the second quarter, a year-on-year growth rate of 1.

67%, down 54.


In the first half of the year, the return was basically zero.

49 yuan / share, an increase of 11 in ten years.

36%, the average return on average net assets increased by 3.

82%, an increase of 0 compared with the same period last year.


The improvement of the company’s performance was mainly due to the general improvement of the stock market in the first half of 2019, and the stock trading quotas of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased.

  Key points of investment: The market is picking up. The company’s brokerage and self-employed businesses contribute a share of the company’s application of Internet technology. The report continues to increase the exploration of emerging technologies and the mining of big data.Business model.

As of the end of the reporting period, the monthly number of activities of “Zhangle Wealth Link” was 749.

340,000, ranking first in securities company APP.

  Net income from procedures and commissions for asset-light business representatives was 44.

63 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.

52%, of which, net income from securities business was 22.

4.3 billion, the previous growth rate was 20.

59%; net income from securities underwriting business was 6.

40,000 yuan, a decrease of 25 per year.

25%; net income from asset management business is 10,000 yuan, with an annual growth rate of 18.


^ Net income is 12.

68 ppm, a reduction of 3 per year.

21%; large self-operated business realized operating income of 34.

31 ppm, a 119-year increase.


  From Q2 alone, the net fee and commission income was 23.

22 ppm, an increase of 21 in ten years.

44%, an increase of 8 from the previous month.

45%, of which, the net income from the agency business of securities trading, the net income from the securities underwriting business and the net income from the asset management business increased by 27.

92%, -11%, 12.07%, compared with Q1, the chain growth rate is -0.

53%, 43.

55%, -3.


Net interest income, large self-employed business achieved income 7 in Q2.

65, 12.

27 ppm, an increase of 25% over ten years, 81.

78%, the chain growth rate was 52.

09%, -44.


  In terms of the proportion of the structure, in the first half of 2019, the net income from agency trading of securities business, net income from securities underwriting business, net income from asset management business, net index income, and net income from large self-employed businesses were 20.

19%, 5.

44%, 12.

60%, 11.

42%, 30.


The corresponding proportion in Q2 single quarter was 23 respectively.

01%, 7.

33%, 14.

14%, 15.

74%, 25.


  The large self-operated business promoted the improvement of performance, and the company’s equity investment income increased from the previous quarter. The company continued to work hard to promote the transformation of the business model into transactions, actively explored transformation strategies, and explored innovative profit models such as macro hedging transaction business.

Relying on the big data system platform, a comprehensive market monitoring system is improved, the research and tracking of the industrial chain is deepened, the market operation rules are actively explored, market change opportunities are captured, and transaction business is supported.

At the same time, it closely tracked the creation progress of the science and technology board and laid out related investment and trading businesses.

  , The company’s self-operated business realized income34.

31 ppm, a 119-year increase.

65%, mainly because the market is picking up, net income from fair value changes has increased, and self-operated investment businesses have seen a significant boost.

  Achieve self-employed income12.

27 ppm, an increase of 81 in ten years.

78%, down 44.


The company’s investment income from associates and joint ventures is 12.

80 ppm, an increase of 32 in ten years.

37%, of which the single quarter is 1.

13 ppm, a reduction of 70 per year.

80%, 90% lower than the previous month.


The substantial growth of the company’s self-operated business and equity investment business jointly promoted the improvement of overall performance.

  Under strict risk control, the company actively adjusted its operating strategy. The net interest rate income decreased slightly, and the company’s net interest income was 12.68 ppm, a slight decrease of 3 a year.

21% of which achieved 7.

65 ppm, an increase of 25% per year and an increase of 52 from the previous month.

09%, the company actively adjusted its operating strategy, the company quickly responded to market changes and regulatory requirements, and comprehensively improved the risk management and control capabilities of the capital intermediary business.

  As of the end of the reporting period, the balance of the margin financing and securities lending business of the parent company was RMB548.

390,000 yuan, the overall maintenance guarantee ratio is 316.

98%; the stock pledged repurchase business’s repurchase margin is RMB 10,000, and the average performance guarantee ratio is 267.


At the end of the reporting period, the company’s balance of financial assets purchased under resale agreements was 267.

12 trillion, a decrease of 38 from the end of the previous period.

67%, a 38% drop from the previous month.

64%, mainly due to the company’s initiative to reduce the size of the stock. The company representative said that this business will be compressed in the future, focusing on the main business of stock pledge business, such as helping customers to bridge financing and other financing;On the other hand, the scale at the end of the period was 569.

31 ppm, an increase of 23 from the end of the previous period.

26%, basically unchanged from the previous month, mainly because the company seized the possibility of market recovery and the financing scale increased.

  Equity transfer business has decreased, and companies that have grown in bond underwriting business rely on the integrated platform of large investment banks and a full-service chain system, and focus on industry focus, regional layout and customer deepening.
Grasp the new trends in the development of the capital market, and with the launch of the science and technology board, actively strengthen the layout in the field of scientific and technological innovation.

  According to wind statistics, the Group’s total underwriting amount for the first half of 2019 was 2034.

11 trillion, compared with 1669 in the same period last year.

30,000 yuan, an increase of 21 in ten years.

87%, of which 472 is equity underwriting.

24 ppm, a decrease of 42 per year.


Among them, the total underwriting amount in the second quarter was 1018.

3 trillion, basically the same as the division in the first quarter, of which the fair underwriting was 202.

09 million yuan, down 25.

74%; bond underwriting scale was 816.

2.1 billion, up 9 from the previous month.


As of August 29, 2019, Huatai jointly planned to underwrite the science and technology board project amount of 117.

1.3 billion, with a market share of 8.


Among the mentoring science and technology companies, Fangbang, Hongsoft, Guangfeng Technology and Huaxing Yuanchuang have all been successfully listed.

It is expected that in the future, the reserved science and technology board project will be devoted to improving the income of investment banking business.

  The growth rate of the asset management business was slightly faster than expected, and the growth rate of the brokerage business was in line with the expected new capital management requirements of Huatai Asset Management Corporation. Relying on the advantages of the full business chain resources and focusing on customer needs, the financial asset acquirers and financial assets were actively usedPricing players and financial product creators have the advantages of integration, continuously improve their active management capabilities, and provide customers with comprehensive financial service solutions for the entire life cycle and the entire business chain.

According to the statistics of the Fund Industry Association as of the first quarter of 2019, the average monthly scale of private equity management of Huatai Asset Management Corporation was RMB 8,491.

06 million yuan, ranking second in the industry; the average monthly scale of private equity actively managed assets was RMB 2,334.

520,000 yuan, ranking fourth in the industry.

According to wind energy statistics, the report was merged, and Huatai Asset Management 南京桑拿网 Corporation’s corporate ABS (asset securitization) issued RMB447.

840,000 yuan, ranking second in the industry.

  Net income from asset management business was 13.99 ‰, the annual growth rate is 18.

66%, mainly due to the company’s outstanding active management capabilities, the asset management business growth rate broke through, slightly exceeding expectations.

  The international layout leads a new era, and it is expected to form a duopoly competition. In the year, the company achieved impressive results in the international layout. Firstly, it was successfully issued in June 2019 and became the first A + G + H Chinese-funded securities company; Huatai Securities ((USA) Co., Ltd. received underwriting advance securities in the United States; In July 2019, its subsidiary AseetMark was spun off and listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

We believe that the company can 苏州夜网论坛 grasp a better time window for each capital operation.

The company’s international strategic layout has opened up a new situation for the company’s development and integrated the territory, such as applying for the European FA license as soon as possible to serve European customers and form a continuous synergy effect.

  Estimation and investment advice The company’s business develops in a balanced manner. The brokerage business is at the forefront of the industry. Wealth management transformation is constantly underway. The quality investment bank will lead the industry.

As the first A + H + G listed brokerage company, the company will make good use of two international and domestic markets, make in-depth layout of international business and lead the industry, and draw closer to the scale of capital, such as CITIC Securities and Haitong Securities.Especially after the implementation of new regulations such as the “Administrative Measures on the Equity of Securities Companies”, Huatai Securities may trigger and form a duopoly competition in the industry.

  Strategically, in 2019, the company will form a two-wheel drive pattern of wealth management and institutional business, achieving comprehensive marketization in mechanism; implementing customer-driven architecture, reorganizing the organizational structure, and promoting the online and online integration process of wealth management; implementing intelligence in servicesOperations, to create a strong headquarters and Taiwan support system; to implement cross-border linkages in space; to implement digital transformation in technology to achieve technological empowerment.

  We believe that the company will continue to advance international advanced management experience on the mechanism, accelerate the implementation of the professional manager system and optimize the incentive system, and help attract more management talents with an international perspective and rich practical experience to join.On the way, we will continue to move forward steadily, let the market activate the organization, and let competition hone the organizational change.

  In addition, we think that from the current point of view, it is necessary to focus on the potential risks of the layout of the internationalized business of Chinese-funded securities companies. Everbright Securities, which has been exposed successively this year, and GF Securities’ overseas subsidiaries in the process of internationalization are all different.Risk events have occurred to some extent, and it is necessary to pay attention to the possibility that due to the organizational structure and risk control compliance, the company’s management area may exceed the existing capabilities, so as to summarize necessary experiences and lessons from the success of Goldman Sachs and the closed quagmire of Deutsche Bank.

  From the large-scale profile, we are optimistic about the company’s strategic development prospects and look forward to fruition. It is expected that the diluted EPS for the year -2021 will be 0.



14 yuan, corresponding to PE, to maintain the “recommended” level.

  Risk reminders: Sino-US trade friction risks, macroeconomic downside risks; the risk of a sharp decline in the stock market; the company’s performance does not meet the expected risks;

Tianfeng Securities: Funding gap before the Spring Festival 3.

When will 8 trillion be lowered?

Tianfeng Securities: Funding gap before the Spring Festival 3.

When will 8 trillion be lowered?

When will it be lowered?

  The funding gap before the Spring Festival in 2019 is about 3.

8 trillion, may use CRA to release short-term funds again in the long run, and at the same time reduce the 50bp / 100bp standard.

There is about 200bp reduction in 2019, corresponding to 3-4 reductions. It is expected that the probability of reduction in 1/4 / July is high.

  The funding gap before the Spring Festival in 2019 is about 3.

8 trillion, may use CRA to release short-term funds again in the long run, and at the same time reduce the 50bp / 100bp standard.

There is about 200bp reduction in 2019, corresponding to 3-4 reductions. It is expected that the probability of reduction in 1/4 / July is high.
  First, the liquidity pressure is the highest in the middle and late January, with a capital gap of about 3.

8 trillion The period of maximum liquidity pressure in the first quarter of 2019 or in mid-to-late January, the funding gap in January was about 3.

8 trillion.

Specifically, the main factors causing the funding gap include: increased demand for cash by enterprises and residents before the Spring Festival, fiscal deposits turned over to the state treasury in January, local government bonds issued in advance, and previous monetary policy instruments expired.

  1) Historical experience shows that cash needs will increase before the Spring Festival due to the needs of enterprises to release bonuses and residents’ purchases before the Spring Festival.

From the change of M0 (cash in circulation), if the Spring Festival is in early January-February, M0 will increase in January (2014, 2016, 2017); if the Spring Festival is around mid-February, January M0 will slightly increaseGrowth, M0 increased significantly in February (2015, 2018).

The Spring Festival in 2019 is at the beginning of February. With reference to recent years, it is expected that cash demand will increase significantly in mid-to-late January, and M0 in January will increase by 1 from the previous month.

5 trillion.

Figure 1: Changes in M0 from January to February in the past 5 years (mega) Source: WIND, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute 2) Financial deposits are paid in January, consuming deposits from financial institutions, and reducing base currency issuance.

With reference to the changes in “government deposits” in the long-term asset and balance sheet since 2015, the chained increase in January was between 400 billion and 1 trillion, and the swaps.

Neutral forecasts that in January this year, fiscal deposits will be turned over to 700 billion yuan.

  3) The seventh meeting of the Standing Committee of the Thirteenth National People’s Congress decided to authorize the State Council to advance the local government’s supplementary general debt limit of US $ 580 billion in 2019, plus the reduction of US $ 810 billion in special debts, for a total of US $ 1.39 billion.

After the debt ceiling is released in advance, the issuance of local government supplementary bonds will be advanced from April to the beginning of the previous year.

According to our calculations in the annual outlook, the local government’s supplementary debt reduction in 2019 will be about 3 trillion, and the issuance scale in the first quarter is expected to be close to 1 trillion.

The Spring Festival factors have led to a decrease in the working day in February. Considering the urgency of infrastructure investment to underpin the economy, the issuance of new local bonds in January may be around 300 billion yuan.

  4) A large number of monetary policy instruments expired in January, mainly including: 830 billion reverse repurchases expired on January 4-17; January 100 billion Treasury cash management commercial bank time deposits expired; January 15390 billion MLF expires today, a total of 1 due.

32 trillion.

  Second, referring to historical conditions, 苏州夜网论坛 the probability of a 50-100bp reduction in mid-early January is higher. Taking into account the above four factors, the funding gap in January is about 3.

8 trillion (15000 + 7000 + 3000 + 13200).

Among them, the withdrawal of corporate residents and the payment of financial deposits are transient factors, and will gradually return to normal after the Spring Festival, with a scale of 2.

About 2 trillion yuan; local bond issuance and the expiration of monetary policy instruments are long-term factors, with a scale of 1.

About 6 trillion.

Therefore, in order to ensure stable liquidity around the Spring Festival and smooth issuance of local bonds, it may be necessary to gradually release short-term funds2.

2 trillion, release of long-term funds + release of monetary policy tools1.

6 trillion.

  With reference to the situation in 2018, the Chinese New Year on February 16th, M0 from January to February gradually increased by about 1.08 billion yuan, the government deposits under the consolidated balance sheet in January increased by approximately 9.50 billion yuan, and local government bonds were not issued on a net basis.Cumulative monetary policy instruments have accumulated maturity of 3,555.9 billion yuan, with a total funding gap of approximately 5.

6 trillion.
As a hedge, 30 days of short-term funds of approximately US $ 2 trillion were released in advance from mid-January through the use of temporary reserve utilization arrangements (CRA). Various monetary policy tools were put into use at the beginning of the year and before the holiday.Released long-term funds of 270 billion yuan, for a total of about 5.

2 trillion.  This year’s short-term funding gap is about 2.

2 trillion, may use CRA again in advance to release short-term funds of 2 trillion; for a total of 1.

The long-term funding gap of 6 trillion U.S. dollars and the expiration of monetary policy tools may lead to a reduction of 50bp / 100bp before the holiday each year to release long-term funds of 7000/1.

4 trillion, while limiting the long-term funding gap while returning some quantitative monetary policy tools, the remaining part is continued using TMLF, reverse repurchase, and treasury cash time deposits.

This year’s Spring Festival is on February 5th. Considering the prospective nature of the pre-holiday reduction policy, it is expected that the probability of a reduction in the mid-January and last month is high.

  Third, it is expected that there will be a 200bp RRR cut, with a high probability of 1/4 / July transition. Governor Yi Gang stated on the “Sina · Chang’an Forum” on December 13, 2018, “The monetary policy of the People’s Bank of China is undergoingGradually shift from a contraction in quantity to a price breakthrough in nature. ”

In order to realize the role of price adjustment tools, the binding force of quantitative replacement tools, such as the reserve ratio, needs to be gradually reduced. It is expected that the standard will be lowered several times during the year. In addition to the issuance of local debt and the maintenance of reasonable and sufficient liquidity, a large probability will replace someShort-term quantitative monetary policy tools.

  At present, there is about 200bp reduction in 2019, corresponding to 3-4 reductions, and the release of long-term liquidity is about 2.

6 trillion.
In terms of rhythm, comprehensive consideration of fiscal payment time, MLF maturity time and maturity, macro data release time, local bond issuance rhythm and other factors, combined with our previous judgment on the gradual economic trend, is expected to fall in 1/4 / JulyThe probability is relatively high.

Table 1: Summary of MLF’s subsequent maturity Source: WIND, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute Risk Warning Economic Downside Pressure Exceeds Expectation; External Environmental Pressure Exceeds Expectation

Livzon Group (000513): Pioneering Kit for Anti-epidemic Brings New Expectations

Livzon Group (000513): Pioneering Kit for Anti-epidemic Brings New Expectations

The entire line supports the demand for drugs in epidemic areas with a target price of 47.


30 yuan, maintaining “Buy” rating Since the outbreak of the new coronary disease, the company has fully and closely supported, covering 3 test reagents, medicines (antiviral particles, Shenqi Fuzheng) and material donations (5 million cash and 7 million drugs).

According to the company announcement and public communication, the sales of antiviral particles doubled in January. The antibody 上海夜网论坛 kit (Elisa and colloidal gold) is expected to pass emergency approval (4.2 million people / month supply) in 1-2 weeks, trying to form a strong complement to nucleic acid PCR detection, Become a new program for rapid large-scale population screening.

We maintain the company’s highest performance growth rate of over 20% and maintain EPS forecast for 19-21.



98 yuan, giving 28-30 times PE for 20 years (strong variety anti-collection risk capability, rich monoclonal antibody / microsphere pipeline, 23 times PE 20-30% premium for comparable companies), target price 47.


30 yuan, buy recommended.

  Chinese medicine sector: full production of antiviral granules is expected to narrow the overall decline 1Q20 The overall output value of the Chinese medicine sector is expected to narrow. 1) Antiviral granules are all started during the Spring Festival to achieve full production and sales, 100,000 in JanuaryBox sales, basically equivalent to 1/3 of previous years, there are still orders for 90,000 boxes in hand; 2) Shenqi Fuzheng has no obvious benefit performance in January sales, and the sales situation in February is yet to be observed, but we expect large-scale salesThe scale of sales is relatively small.

  Western medicine sector: Aipu speeds up, IVF rigid demand is strong, it is expected to resume growth after the epidemic is over. We expect the western medicine sector to grow at a rate of about 25% in 2020. The main drivers are: 1) Aipu’s two dosage forms will achieve 50% in 2020+ Revenue growth rate (injectables have entered the medical insurance negotiation smoothly and the decline rate is low, only 39%), and gradually realize the power of medical insurance to accelerate market replacement (1H19 Epp proportion sample hospital sample).

4%, while injectables account for 70% of the PPI market, replacing space transmission); and 2) IVF may be affected by reduced travel intentions during the epidemic period, but there is no significant change in the company’s dispatch at present.Medication is used to move the medication cycle forward or backward for patients), and we believe that the overall impact on the company is limited.

The subsequent epidemic cooled, and rigid demand for IVF is expected to recover in the second quarter.

  Exclusive Elisa and antibody colloidal gold kits are coming soon, providing powerful supplements for nucleic acid detection. Livzon reagents have successfully developed three types of kit products after the outbreak, and all have entered the national emergency channel for approval. The company expects to register successfully in 1-2 weeks:1) Nucleic acid detection kit (PCR-fluorescence): monthly production capacity is 20 copies, full-component freeze-drying technology is packaged in single servings, can be stored and stored at 2-8 ° C and is convenient and quick (30 minutes), delivered on January 27National Bureau of Emergency Approval; 2) IgM / IgG ELISA kit: monthly production capacity of 2 million copies, reducing false negatives of early patient nucleic acid detection, and the process is convenient and easy to operate (no P3 laboratory required); 3) IgM / IgG colloidGold kit: 2 million servings per month.

It can be used for in vitro serum detection in only 15 minutes. It is suitable 杭州桑拿网 for the early screening of large samples of early populations and forms a good complement to the RNA nucleic acid detection kit.

  Risk warning: The clinical data or approval progress of the kit is not up to expectations, and the continuous fermentation of the epidemic affects the subsequent performance of IVF.

Hengshun Vinegar Industry (600305): 2Q results exceed expected growth guidance

Hengshun Vinegar Industry (600305): 2Q results exceed expected growth guidance

1H19 results are lower than expected The company announced 1H19 results: revenue 8.

800 million, ten years +9.

4%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

400 million, +15 per year.

3%, corresponding profit 0.

18 yuan.

Among them, 2Q19 single quarter income / net profit attributable to mother +3.

8% / + 9.

4%, mainly due to the final growth of the vinegar business, so the performance is expected.

Development Trend 2Q The growth rate of vinegar income has been included in the income target unchanged.

In the second quarter of 19, the company’s vinegar revenue was +2 per year.

6%, the previous double-digit growth rate in 1Q19 has improved.

Grassroots research shows that after the company 杭州养生会所 announced a price increase in January, terminal prices in most regions in 1H19 have increased, but the ex-factory price has not actually increased. The main reason is that some of the profits are returned to the channel in the form of discounts.Lead to an advantage in increasing revenue growth.

We judge that this is the most important factor affecting the growth of 2Q vinegar revenue.

Research shows that the increase in ex-factory prices in August is already obvious. We judge that 2H is favored by the price increase factor, and the growth rate of vinegar income has quickly recovered.

1H19 cooking wine still maintained strong growth, with revenue exceeding +32.

6%, has become the company’s star product.

Leaders said they still kept the minimum 12% revenue growth target unchanged.

Continue to expand markets outside East China and actively explore new channels.

1H19 East China base market revenue growth rate 9.

In regions outside East China, revenues in Central and South China increased by 17 respectively.

5% and 14.

7%, eye-catching growth rate.

In terms of different channels, 1H19’s online sales increased by nearly 100%, and 2Q showed an accelerating trend. In the future, it will also be multi-pronged in channels such as KA, distribution, and catering.To expand the number of channel outlets and SKUs in areas outside East China.

2Q gross profit margin and sales expense ratio both increased.

The company’s gross profit margin in the second quarter of 19 was short-term +0.

5ppt, +0 ring.

2ppt, by category, 1H19 vinegar gross margin extended + 2ppt, cooking wine gross margin extended +3

2ppt, mainly due to product structure upgrades and scale effects.

In the second quarter of 19, the company’s sales expense rate increased by +2.

5ppt, unchanged from the previous month.

At least the reason for the increase is the increase in support for the channel after the price increase, which is mainly reflected in the increase in personnel costs, advertising costs and the proportion of promotional costs.

We expect the highest gross margin and expense ratio trends to be the same as 1H.

Earnings forecasts and estimates have been lowered for 19/20 due to higher-than-expected 1H19 results4.

1% / 6.

1%, downgrade EPS forecast by 7.

5% / 8.

9% to 0.45/0.

51 yuan, the current price corresponds to 19/20 33/29 times P / E, correspondingly lowered the target price of 7.

5% to 16.

2 yuan, maintain outperform industry rating, corresponding to 19/20 36/32 times P / E, the current price is 8.

5% space.

Risks Raw materials fluctuate, industry demand changes, industry competition intensifies, and food safety risks.

Baiyun Airport (600004) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Tax-free high growth, but Q3 cost rise month-on-month results in single quarter profits continue to be optimistic about the company’s potential release

Baiyun Airport (600004) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Tax-free high growth, but Q3 cost rise month-on-month results in single quarter profits continue to be optimistic about the company’s potential release

The company released the third quarter of 2019 report: the first three quarters of results increased by 38%, Q3 fell by 33%.

1) Revenue for the first three quarters of 58.

33 ppm, an increase of 深圳桑拿网 0 in ten years.

51%, net profit attributable to mother 5.

73 ppm, a ten-year average of 37.

6%, deducting non-net profit 43% per year.

2) View by quarter: Q3 single-quarter revenue of 19.

7.4 billion, the previous decade5.

2%, net profit attributable to mother 1.

4.5 billion, the previous decade 32.

9%, the first quarter and second quarter revenue exceeded 11 for growth.

3% and above 2.

8%, and the attributable net profit is doped 48, respectively.

3% and 24.


3) Operating data: Q3 single-quarter business volume accelerated.

Q3 company took off and landed 9.

350,000, an annual increase of 5.

5%, the number of passengers exploded 13.51 million, an annual increase of 10%; Q1, Q2 company takeoffs and landings increased by 4 times.

7% and 0.

8%, passenger explosions increased by 7.

9% and 4.


Especially after July, the company’s business volume growth rate has gradually increased.

Revenue structure: Q3 excludes the impact of the Civil Aviation Development Fund on its annual growth of 7%, with high growth in tax-free sales, and the drag on the commercial part of taxation as a disturbing factor.

1) Excluding the influence of the Civil Aviation Development Fund, the overall revenue growth rate is about every six months.

The company cancelled the Civil Aviation Development Fund as a return of revenue at the end of November 2018, and it is expected to reduce it by about 8 compared to 18 years.

3 trillion, of which Q3 as the peak season of civil aviation, is expected to be about 2 in the same period last year.

400 million US dollars, after deducting the impact of this part, revenue in 19Q3 increased by 7% annually, and Q2 increased by about 10%.

Looking at the chain, Q3’s revenue increased by 0 compared to Q2.

3.2 billion.

2) High growth in tax exemption: Q3 tax exemption is expected to be about 5.

200 million, an increase of 1 from the previous month.

About 100 million, with an average of more than 1 month.

700 million, a significant increase over the first half of the year, in which a single month in September is expected to be approximately 2 billion, and the estimated per capita contribution is about 120 yuan (average 92 yuan in the first half, total tax exemption 8.

4 billion, monthly average 1.

4.1 billion).
The company Q3 recognized tax exempt income of about 2 trillion, an increase of about 0 from the previous month.
4.2 billion.

3) The formation of tax-bearing businesses is dragged down: Due to the rent-off of some merchants and the time difference between the expected and re-entry, this part may affect the income volume of about 0.

800 million.

But we think this part is a disturbance factor.

With the subsequent re-investment will be repaired.

4) The impact of civil aviation funds was reduced. In the third quarter, single-quarter profits increased for two consecutive years, reflecting the tax-free business’s driving effect on the company’s performance.

Cost structure: Q3’s single-quarter cost growth declined, but the chain increased by about 95 million, resulting in higher-than-expected profits.

Q3 single quarter operating cost 15.

9.5 billion, down by 1 every year.

7%, an increase of about 0 from the second quarter.

95 billion (an increase of 0 from the previous quarter).

900 million).

We think the reasons are: 1) the sequential increase in business volume has led to natural increases in labor and external costs; 2) the pace of company cost expenditures has led to relatively high levels in the third quarter.

The core tax exemption logic has not been affected, and the heavy volume of international flights in winter and spring has helped to consolidate the tax exemption foundation.

We believe that the company’s core logic lies in the tax-free market space and the rapid growth of the company compared to the Shanghai airport. The international line has significantly increased in the winter and spring seasons this year, with a total growth rate of 6.

8%, the top ten airport flights, of which international growth rate reached 10 in ten years.

6%, the high growth rate of the international line has consolidated the company’s tax-free development foundation.

Earnings forecast and investment recommendations: 1) Based on the company’s Q3 cost increase from the previous month and the expected drag on the commercial sector, we adjust the profit forecast for 2019-21 to: 7.

9, 11.

96 and 15.

84 trillion (previous forecast was 9.

2, 13.

4 and 17.

400 million), corresponding to PE55, 36 and 27 times.

2) We believe that the company’s core logic has not been affected, and maintain the same view: optimistic about the restructuring of the airport cluster of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, and the rapid growth of corporate tax exemption.

We estimate that international tourists will reach 30 million or more in 2025, with a per capita contribution of 200-300 yuan, tax-free receipts of 6-111.3 billion, airport commission income of 2.3-4.3 billion, and overall profits of 2.5-4 billion, giving 20 timesPE corresponds to a medium-term market value of 50-80 billion. We expect that with the tax-free growth rate, the market may recover to 50 billion in market value in advance, corresponding to a target price of 24.

2 yuan, maintain the “recommended” level.

Risk warning: The growth rate of tax exemption is lower than expected, and the cost is higher than expected.

China Merchants Securities (600999) Research Brief: Self-operated business releases science and technology board to increase investment bank performance

China Merchants Securities (600999) Research Brief: Self-operated business releases science and technology board to increase investment bank performance

Event description According to the monthly operating report, from January to November 2019, the parent company gradually realized operating income of 117.

09 million yuan, an increase of 54% in ten years; gradually achieve a net profit of 46.

440,000 yuan, an annual increase of 55%.

Event Commentary Self-operated business and capital intermediary business contributed performance elasticity.

The market is picking up in 2019, and the attributes of the securities firm Beta are evident.

In the first three quarters, the company’s securities investment income was 41.

40,000 yuan, an increase of 152% in ten years; realized interest income of 14.

7.5 billion, an increase of 126% in ten years.

深圳桑拿网 Science and technology board business increased investment bank performance.

In 2019, the company issued 141 IPOs.

96 ppm, ranking the fourth in the industry; the company provides 12 companies with science and technology board issuance services, ranking 5th in the industry; according to WIND, China Merchants Investment participates in strategic issuance and is gradually allocated.

44 trillion, the latest holdings of market value 2.

3.3 billion, a floating profit of 62%.

The company’s first three quarters of investment bank underwriting net income10.

27 ppm, an increase of 14% per year.

Credit ABS underwriting industry first.

The debt-bearing business continued to maintain its advantages and created asset securitization product features.

According to WIND, the total size of corporate debt commitments in 2厦门夜网019 is 3951.

53 trillion, market share 5.

21%, ranking fifth among brokers; ABS underwriting totals 2325.

24 ppm with a market share of 10.

49%, ranking second in the industry; of which the scale of credit ABS underwriting is 1933.

54 trillion, market share 20.

06%, the industry first.

The custody outsourcing business is stable first in the industry.

The company’s institutional service capabilities are leading the industry. At the end of the first half of the year, the company’s custody expansion products (including asset management subsidiaries) totaled 19,206, an increase of 4 from the end of the previous year.

01%, scale 20,769.

670,000 yuan, an increase of 4 over the end of last year.


In the first half of the year, the company ranked first in the industry for the number of private fund custody products, the number of WFOE custody expansion services and WFOE managers; the number of public fund custody ranked first in the securities industry.

In March 2019, the company took the lead in launching a rights issue.

The proposed fundraising does not exceed 15 billion, and the company’s controlling shareholders and concert parties (shareholding ratio).

09%) has promised to fully subscribe for the placing shares to provide support for the company’s development.

In addition, the company launched an employee stock ownership plan to promote state-owned enterprise reform and increase employee stickiness.

Investment suggestion that the company’s various businesses develop in a balanced manner, without obvious business shortcomings, and through complementary institutional service capabilities, bring leading advantages in areas such as custody expansion and asset securitization.

Steady operation is the company’s background, coupled with the additional shareholder strength, optimistic about the company’s long-term development.

The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.

98\1.07\1.20, BPS is 13.

00\13.74\13.83, corresponding to the company’s closing price on December 31.

29 yuan, PB for 2019-2021 is 1 respectively.


Maintain the “overweight” rating.

There is a risk that the secondary market has severely declined; capital market reforms have fallen short of expectations.

Funeng Shares (600483) Interim Review: Performance Meets Expectations

Funeng Shares (600483) Interim Review: Performance Meets Expectations
The performance is in line with expectations, and it is worth looking forward to the 19H1 company’s operating income / net profit attributable to mothers44.5/4.900 million, +15 for ten years.9% / + 21.6%, performance is in line with expectations.At present, offshore wind power has entered the stage of heavy volume. The offshore wind power in Shicheng and Pinghai Bay Area F has been put into production in 19H2. At the same time, we continue to be optimistic about the decline in 19H2 coal prices and good thermal power business performance.Maintain prediction 19?21 years return to mother net profit13.4/17.1/19.10,000 yuan, corresponding to EPS0.86/1.10/1.23 yuan, currently corresponding to 19?21 years P / E 9.8/7.7/6.8x, giving the company 12-14 times the target PE for 19 years, with a target price of 10.35-12.07 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. Thermal power profit recovers to overcome the pressure of wind power interference. 19H1 performance is in line with expectations. 19H1 company achieved operating income / net attributable to net profit / net 南京夜网 non-attributed net profit44.5/4.9/4.700 million, before +15.9% / + 21.6% / 17.3%, the first half performance was in line with expectations.In terms of business: 1) Outstanding thermal power performance: Hongshan Thermal Power, the core thermal power asset, achieved net profit attributable to its mother in 19H2.300 million (previously + 53%), the amount of electricity increased (according to the announcement, Q1 / Q2 online electricity increased by +23% /-2%, and H1 totaled +6 longer.4%) incorporated into the decline in coal prices (according to WIND data, Q1 / Q2 Fujian Electric Coal Index fell -15% /-9%), conversion, benefited from the early implementation of alternative energy business, Jinjiang Gas & Power performance reduced by 87.73 million yuan, furtherPromote the improvement of thermal power business; 2) Wind power is temporarily under pressure: Due to the attenuation of wind conditions, the 19H1 Funeng New Energy wind power grid-connected power can pass -2.3%, resulting in a net return to mother of -13% per year. Offshore wind power performance is on the verge of falling, coal prices have gradually increased, driving thermal power profits higher and terminated. In early 2019, the company’s offshore wind power installed reserves of 2.2 million kilowatts, of which offshore / onshore wind power were 2 / 200,000 kilowatts, respectively.Among the projects under construction, there are three offshore wind power projects. Among them, the offshore wind power in Shicheng and Pinghai Bay Area F has been put into production in 19H2. Changle Offshore Offshore Wind Farm Area C is in the early stages of the project.In terms of thermal power, due to the weakening of the marginal effect of coal supply-side reforms + high factory inventory + the spillover effect of the Menghua railway operation driving the increase in coal supply in Central China, we continue to be optimistic about the decline in 19H2 coal prices.Profit is expected to increase by 2% / 2% in 2019-20. Nuclear power projects have sufficient reserves. The acquisition of 10% equity of Ningde Nuclear Power may restore the company’s performance to the end of 2018. The company’s equity construction and reserve nuclear power projects are about 16 million kilowatts, and the installed capacity of equity is about 3.8 million kilowatts.At present, the nuclear power policy is frequently positive, overlapping operating costs are low, and long-term profitability changes, which is good for the company’s future performance.On August 1, the company announced that it plans to purchase 10% equity of Ningde Nuclear Power. According to the company’s announcement, Ningde Nuclear Power’s net profit for 2017/2018 / 19Q1 was 16 respectively.48/22.34/4.5.6 billion, after the completion of the merger and acquisition will significantly increase the company’s performance. Maintain profit forecast and give “Buy” rating. Benefit from offshore wind power volume imminent, thermal power tends to pick up and nuclear power asset injection is good. We maintain our forecast for 2019?21 years return to mother net profit.4/17.1/19.1 trillion, corresponding to 0 EPS.86/1.10/1.23 yuan, BPS is 8.43/9.52/10.75 yuan.The current anniversary corresponds to 2019?21 years P / E is 9.8/7.7/6.8x, P / B is 1.0/0.9/0.8 times.The average P / E of the comparable companies in the reference industry in 2019 is 13x. Considering that the company’s stock assets performance continues to improve and the incremental assets are of high quality, the company is given 12-14 times PE in 19 years, and the corresponding target price is 10.35-12.07 yuan, given a “buy” rating. Risk warning: New project progress is less than expected; electricity price / coal price is less than expected; gas and electricity policy is less than expected.